Top NFL expert picks for Week 1. Hammer says the Bills (-6.5) will dismantle the Jets.Buffalo's defense is among the league's best, and quarterback Josh Allen took a step forward in Year Two. NFL Expert Picks - Super Bowl Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16 Week 17 Wild Card Divisional Round Conference. Related NFL Odds: Early Week 1 betting lines and best bets for the 2020 season. Initially, the Dallas Cowboys opened as -2 favorites on the spread, -127 on the moneyline. Dallas is coming into the 2020 season with high expectations, with a new head coach and a plethora of offensive talent in place.

Football is back. That means gambling is back, which means this weekly article is back.

Last year we finished — I say we because gambling is a communal thing — 59-59-2, That’s pretty good! That’s three years in a row where we went .500 or better.

For the newcomers, this isn’t a normal betting article. I won’t pick every game. I will actually use over/unders for game totals and team totals. I throw in a prop bet if it’s interesting and on the board. I will definitely throw in teasers and parlays.

A quick reminder on teasers: On two-team teasers we get six points to play with. Let’s use completely hypothetical Pittsburgh v. Cleveland line that is listed Pittsburgh -9, and an Atlanta v. Tampa Bay line that is listed Atlanta – 7 as an example. That means we can move that line six points either way — so Steelers -3 or Cleveland +15. To do so we must move another line as well. In this case, our teaser bet is Pittsburgh -3 and Atlanta -1. We must win both bets. Meaning if Pittsburgh were to win by three — a push — we’d lose. If Atlanta wins by one, same thing. We must win each side. Teaser bets are also known as sucker’s bets because they are actually pretty difficult to hit. Everyone puts money on it thinking it’s an easy win and then they lose. We have crumpled betting tickets in our hands and maybe we use them to wipe the tears. Teasers come in the six-point, 10-point, and 14-point variety. We can do three-team six-point teasers for better odds. We will always explain it.

Here’s my normal caveat: please, please ease into the first weeks — if you’re hypothetically betting on games. Teams can surprise you. Teams will disappoint you. It’s tough to get a good handle on the NFL until at least five to six weeks into the season. Find out what teams you like and what teams you don’t like and stick to it. By the middle of the season, Las Vegas will have adjusted and there won’t be a chance to sneak in some value here and there.

And remember, this is just for fun. Because watching football is supposed to be fun. Alright, let’s get started.

Home teams in CAPS, odds, as always, are the consensus listed here. Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.

Todd Gurley is a full-go for the Rams according to Sean McVay. Jared Goff has his contract all set. The Rams are ready to go for the 2019 season. Except . . .

We don’t know how the Rams are going to deal with the Super Bowl loss hangover. They are making the west coast to east coast flight to play a 10:00 a.m. PT game — even though that old gambling urban myth has been debunked in recent years. We’ve heard that Cooper Kupp is healthy and ready to go, but we won’t really know how he performs until he actually performs. There are a lot of question marks.

The Panthers have their own question to answer and it’s centered around how Cam Newton will perform in a full game. He’s coming off a shoulder injury and injured his foot in the preseason. Cam makes the Carolina offense run.

The Panthers defense will have their hands full, but they will reportedly go with more multiple looks this year. They’ve always had a solid defense and this year is no different. We’ll need to see what they throw at the Rams and see if they learned anything from the Patriots victory in the Super Bowl. Los Angeles needs to be ready to counter.

This spread seems a bit odd. The Panthers weren’t very good last year. The Rams were. We always see one weird game in Week 1 and this could be it. Add in the flight, the Super Bowl hangover, and the fact the Panthers go from being bad one year to good the next — check out Ron Rivera’s coaching record — and I’ll take the home dog.

PANTHERS +2 OVER Rams

The old four-point spread that means the books kind of don’t know which way this is going to go. It makes sense though.

The Vikings should be better in a Kubiak designed offense. Dalvin Cook could be scary good as long as he stays healthy. The Vikings have the necessary weapons to score points and the Falcons defense has never been great under Dan Quinn.

As for the Falcons, I just can’t quit them. They should be good. They have essentially the same team that made it to the Super Bowl three seasons ago. Their young defense is finally healthy after last year. Devonta Freeman is also healthy. Calvin Ridley brings an added dynamic to the offense across from Julio Jones — assuming Jones plays on Sunday and it will be more likely if he gets that new contract we’ve all been waiting for.

The Falcons play a ton of games on turf and this weekend is no different. If we think Atlanta is going to finish .500 or better — and I do — then we have to take the Falcons. Kirk Cousins can’t beat teams that finish 8-8 or better.

Falcons +4 OVER VIKINGS

This is the best AFC East game that does not feature the Patriots in years. The Jets and Bills come into this season with high hopes. One is going to start the season out on the right foot and one is going to start the season off poorly.

Here’s to thinking — and hoping — it’s the Jets that start things off the right way. Sam Darnold is better than Josh Allen at this point. The Jets also have more weapons now that they added Le’Veon Bell to the backfield.

The under might actually be the play in this game. The Bills offense is still suspect. The wide receiving corps is improved from last year, but that’s not exactly saying much. Josh Allen needs to prove he can hit intermediate routes if Cole Beasley is going to be worth anything. At least we might see a bomb from Allen to John Brown.

Adam Gase always has his teams play above their ability. The Jets actually have some talent so 8-8 is not out of the question. The only problem with Gase is that his offenses play at a snail’s pace. He should try and speed things up with the current roster makeup.

We will take the home team and a Jets win by a field goal.

JETS -2.5 OVER Bills

Best Nfl Bets Week 16

We are easing in for Week 1 and this is our final best bet of the week. We’ve moved the spread to a virtual pick ’em in the Ravens-Dolphins game and moved the biggest spread of the week down to less than a touchdown with Redskins-Eagles.

The Ravens bet is simply because the Dolphins aren’t very good. In fact, they are tanking without saying they are doing so. Their offensive line is in shambles. That’s not exactly the way to beat the Ravens when they can manufacture a pass-rush if I was their defensive end. We do have to worry about a Fitzmagic Week 1 upset, but we’ll take that chance.

The Eagles should blow the doors off the Redskins. Philadelphia is playing at home. They have Super Bowl aspirations. They have one of the deepest rosters in the league. Carson Wentz is healthy with something to prove. Case Keenum is Case Keenum and that’s usually not good for whatever team he is playing quarterback for — except for that one magical year. If the Eagles are real contenders, this game should never be in doubt.

2018 Record: 59-59-2

2017 Record: 43-29

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